How pollsters accurately called MK party’s stellar rise

South Africans frustrated and disillusioned by the ANC’s broken promises inevitably threw their weight in last Wednesday’s general election behind a man many view as corrupt.

But to supporters of former president Jacob Zuma in KwaZulu-Natal, he is trustworthy, and a scapegoat for the endemic corruption in the governing party.

Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party took 45.38%, the lion’s share of the vote, in the province, followed by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) with 18.09%, the ANC at 17.01%, and the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) 13.28%. Nationally, MK came out with 14.6% of the vote, taking third position after the ANC and the DA, and relegating the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to fourth place.

MK’s stellar success, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, was accurately called by several pollsters, including the Social Research Foundation, Ipsos and the Brenthurst Foundation, as early as February.

The three organisations, as cited in a Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) report, conducted polls that forecast a “shifting political landscape” in which MK would rise to prominence.

“Between these polls, the ANC is expected to get the largest share of the votes —although none puts the ANC above 50%. Polling data indicates that the DA stands to remain between 20% and 27% of the vote, while the EFF stagnates around 10%. Should the official 2024 election results reflect the polling figures  …the MK party could emerge as the third or fourth-biggest party in South Africa,” the report said.

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